Overview
Bearish Three Declining Soldiers
Also known as: Declining Three Methods, Weakening Crows, Fading Soldiers
Three declining soldiers feature three consecutive bearish candles with progressively smaller bodies, indicating that while selling continues, its momentum is weakening. The pattern signals a reversal but with less conviction than three black crows.
The three declining soldiers pattern is a variation of the three black crows where each successive bearish candle has a smaller body. While the downward direction is maintained, the shrinking bodies indicate that selling pressure is diminishing with each session. This creates an ambiguous signal: the pattern confirms that the uptrend has stalled, but the weakening momentum suggests that the sell-off may not have enough power to create a sustained downtrend. Traders should be cautious with this pattern—it may lead to a correction rather than a full trend reversal. The pattern is most useful as a warning signal to close long positions rather than as a standalone short entry signal.
History & Etymology
This variation of the three crows family was identified as traders noticed that the body size progression significantly affects the reliability of the pattern. It builds on the traditional three black crows concept from Japanese candlestick analysis.
'Declining soldiers' metaphorically represents soldiers losing strength as they march—each one weaker than the last. The military metaphor parallels the weakening selling pressure.
How It Forms
Formation Steps
- 1Three consecutive bearish candles each closing lower than the previous
- 2Each successive candle has a smaller real body than the previous one
- 3Each candle opens within the prior candle's body
- 4The progressively smaller bodies signal weakening selling momentum
Prerequisites
- Prior uptrend or rally
- The first candle should have a relatively long body
Confirmation Signals
- Fourth candle continues bearish
- Volume pattern supports the decline
- No bullish reversal candle immediately after
Invalidation Signals
- A strong bullish candle reclaims the pattern's range
- The third candle has a very long lower shadow showing buying support
- Volume increases sharply suggesting capitulation
Candle Breakdown
First Soldier
A long bearish candle opening the reversal with strong selling conviction.
Strong initial selling breaks the uptrend with conviction.
Second Soldier
A medium bearish candle with a noticeably smaller body than the first, continuing lower but with less force.
Selling continues but buyers are beginning to absorb some pressure, shrinking the body.
Third Soldier
A small bearish candle with the smallest body, barely advancing lower. May develop a longer lower shadow.
Selling is exhausting itself. The tiny body shows that bears have little remaining energy.
Psychology
The pattern shows selling momentum fading over three sessions. While the direction remains bearish, the diminishing conviction warns that a reversal of the reversal (i.e., a return to bullish) may be approaching.
Buyer Perspective
Buyers observe the weakening sell-off and begin to regain confidence. The shrinking bearish bodies suggest that selling pressure is exhausting.
Seller Perspective
Sellers initially have conviction but find it harder to push price lower with each session. The progressively smaller gains per session may prompt profit-taking.
Smart Money Action
Smart money may begin covering short positions as the declining body sizes suggest the sell-off is losing steam.
Retail Trader Trap
Retail traders who short after the third candle may find themselves in a losing position if the weakened selling leads to a bounce.
Emotional Cycle
Trading Strategy
Aggressive Entry
Enter short after the second candle if the pattern context supports continuation.
Conservative Entry
Wait for the fourth candle to determine if the sell-off continues or if a bounce is forming. Only enter short if the fourth candle is bearish.
Previous swing low
Measured move equal to the first candle's range
Next major support level
Best Conditions
- Timeframe: 1D
- Timeframe: 4h
- After extended rallies
- Near resistance levels
- Asset: Stocks
- Asset: Indices
Avoid When
- Timeframe: 1m
- Timeframe: 5m
- Strong trending markets
- Momentum environments
Confluence Factors
- Pattern at resistance
- RSI overbought divergence
- Volume declining across candles
- Moving average nearby
Scale In Strategy
Not recommended—the pattern's reliability does not support scaling in.
Scale Out Strategy
Take full profit at the first target due to the weakened momentum signal.
Risk Management
Volume Analysis
Volume Confirmation
Decreasing volume across the three candles supports the declining momentum thesis.
Volume Profile
Volume should decrease with each candle, matching the declining body sizes.
Volume Divergence
Increasing volume on the third (smallest) candle may signal a climactic end to the selling.
Technical Confluence
Support Resistance
The pattern's high becomes resistance. Look for support at the next horizontal level.
Fibonacci Levels
The declining bodies often occur at a Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting the sell-off is a correction.
Moving Averages
If the pattern fails to break below the 50 SMA, it may be a pullback rather than a reversal.
Rsi Confirmation
RSI declining but not reaching oversold confirms moderate selling pressure.
Macd Confirmation
MACD crossing bearish supports the pattern but declining histogram suggests weakening.
Bollinger Bands
If the third candle does not reach the lower band, the sell-off may be insufficient for continuation.
Vwap
Price near VWAP on the third candle suggests indecision rather than conviction.
Ichimoku Cloud
Pattern above the Kumo cloud suggests it may be a correction rather than a reversal.
Elliott Wave
May represent a corrective ABC pattern rather than the start of a new impulse down.
Wyckoff Phase
Could indicate preliminary supply testing rather than full distribution.
Market Profile
Price remaining within the value area suggests the decline is a rotation, not a breakout.
Order Flow
Declining negative delta across the three candles confirms weakening selling.
Open Interest
Monitor open interest changes for additional confirmation of institutional participation in the move.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Higher Timeframe Alignment
Check if the weekly chart supports a reversal or just a pullback.
Lower Timeframe Entry
Use the 4H chart to determine if the decline continues or a base is forming.
Timeframe Confluence
Daily pattern with weekly context determines if it is a reversal or correction.
Top-Down Approach
Weekly trend context > Daily declining soldiers > 4H confirmation.
Statistics
Historical Examples
Microsoft Declining Soldiers
partialMicrosoft formed three declining soldiers after a rally to $350. The pattern led to a 5% pullback but not a full trend reversal.
Lesson: Declining soldiers often signal corrections rather than full reversals.
Variations
Stalled Soldiers
The third candle is a doji or near-doji, showing complete indecision.
Confusion Matrix
Patterns commonly confused with Bearish Three Declining Soldiers and how to distinguish them.
Bearish Three Black Crows
7000% similarCompare the body sizes. Equal long bodies = three black crows. Progressively smaller bodies = three declining soldiers.
Key Differences
- Three black crows have similar-sized long bodies
- Declining soldiers have progressively smaller bodies
- Crows signal stronger conviction
The Bearish Advance Block shows three consecutive bullish candles with progressively smaller bodies and longer upper shadows, signaling that buying momentum is weakening and a reversal or consolidation is likely.
The Deliberation pattern shows two strong bullish candles followed by a small-bodied third candle, indicating that the uptrend is 'deliberating' — the bulls have stalled and are uncertain about pushing higher.
Three black crows is a powerful bearish reversal pattern consisting of three consecutive long bearish candles, each opening within the prior candle's body and closing near its low. It signals strong, persistent selling pressure and a likely trend reversal.
The Bearish Abandoned Baby is one of the rarest and most reliable top reversal patterns in candlestick analysis. It features a doji that is completely isolated by gaps on both sides, signaling an abrupt and dramatic shift from buying to selling pressure.
The Downside Tasuki Gap is a bearish continuation pattern in a downtrend where a gap-down is partially but not completely filled by a bullish candle, suggesting that the downtrend will continue as the gap acts as resistance.
The Evening Doji Star is a top-tier three-candle bearish reversal pattern. The doji in the star position represents the pivot point between bullish confidence (first candle) and bearish dominance (third candle), making it one of the most reliable reversal signals in candlestick analysis.
Pro Tips & Common Mistakes
Pro Tips
- Treat this pattern as a warning to close longs rather than a signal to enter shorts.
- If the third candle has a long lower shadow, the sell-off may already be exhausting itself.
- Compare with three black crows—if body sizes are declining, the bearish case is weaker.
- Use this pattern to tighten stop losses on existing positions rather than opening new trades.
Common Mistakes
- Treating declining soldiers the same as three black crows
- Entering aggressive short positions on a weakening pattern
- Ignoring the declining body sizes as an important signal
Advanced Techniques
- Measure the ratio of the third body to the first—if less than 30%, selling is effectively exhausted.
- Combine with RSI to see if oversold conditions are developing on the third candle.
Institutional Perspective
The declining body sizes often reflect institutional selling that is nearly complete—each session sees less distribution as the supply of shares to sell diminishes.
Fun Facts
- The declining soldiers pattern is sometimes called 'advance block in reverse' because it mirrors the bullish advance block's weakening body progression.
- Statistical analysis shows that about 40% of declining soldiers patterns are followed by a bullish bounce rather than continuation lower.
Frequently Asked Questions
Three consecutive bearish candles with progressively smaller bodies, each closing lower. The shrinking bodies indicate that while selling continues, its momentum is weakening.