Overview
Bearish Identical Three Crows
Doji Sanba Garasu
Also known as: Three Identical Crows, Three Crows Opening at Close
The identical three crows pattern consists of three bearish candles where each opens at or near the previous candle's close, creating a staircase-like decline. It is a stronger variant of the three black crows with more specific opening criteria.
The identical three crows is a variation of the standard three black crows pattern with a stricter requirement: each candle must open at or very near the previous candle's close. This 'identical' opening characteristic means there is no gap between candles and no recovery attempt overnight — the selling is relentless and continuous. The pattern indicates extremely persistent selling pressure where bears take control immediately at each new session's open, pushing price to new lows by the close. It is rarer than the standard three black crows but considered more powerful due to the disciplined, methodical nature of the decline.
History & Etymology
The identical three crows pattern is documented in Japanese candlestick literature as a variant of the standard three crows (sanba garasu). Japanese rice traders noted that when each crow opened precisely at the prior crow's close, the selling pressure was particularly organized and persistent, suggesting institutional selling rather than panic.
The name comes from the Japanese 'sanba garasu' (three crows), with the modifier 'identical' referring to the matching open-close levels between consecutive candles. In Japanese superstition, three crows were considered a bad omen.
How It Forms
Formation Steps
- 1Three consecutive bearish (red/black) candles
- 2Each candle opens at or very near the previous candle's close
- 3Each candle closes progressively lower
- 4Each candle has a similar body size
Prerequisites
- Prior uptrend or rally
- Each open must be at or near the previous close (no gaps)
Confirmation Signals
- Fourth bearish candle continues the decline
- Volume increases or remains strong across all three candles
- No significant lower shadows (shows no buying attempt)
Invalidation Signals
- Strong bullish reversal candle after the third crow
- Volume decreases significantly across the three candles
- Gaps between candles (that would make it standard three black crows)
Candle Breakdown
First Crow
A bearish candle that begins the decline, typically opening in or near the prior uptrend and closing near its low.
First significant selling session. Bears take control from the start and maintain pressure throughout.
Second Crow
Opens at or near the first crow's close and declines to close at a new low. Similar body size to the first crow.
No overnight recovery. Sellers immediately resume at the prior close, showing no respite for bulls.
Third Crow
Opens at or near the second crow's close and continues the decline. The staircase pattern is complete.
Three sessions of uninterrupted selling confirms a regime change. Bulls have completely capitulated.
Psychology
The identical three crows represents organized, methodical selling. The fact that each candle opens at the prior close means there is zero recovery between sessions — the market is in continuous decline mode with selling pressure completely dominating.
Buyer Perspective
Buyers are shell-shocked. Each session opens with no recovery from the prior session's decline, leaving no hope for a bounce. Demoralization is complete by the third candle.
Seller Perspective
Sellers are completely in control and selling is methodical rather than panicked. Each session they resume selling precisely where they left off, demonstrating organized distribution.
Smart Money Action
The identical open-close characteristic suggests systematic institutional selling. Institutions are using TWAP or VWAP algorithms to sell consistently throughout each session, creating the uniform appearance.
Retail Trader Trap
Retail traders look for a gap up to buy the dip between sessions. The lack of any gap up (identical opens) means there is no entry point that feels 'cheap,' yet some still buy and get immediately punished.
Emotional Cycle
Trading Strategy
Aggressive Entry
Short after the second crow closes, anticipating the third.
Conservative Entry
Wait for the third crow to complete, then enter short on the next session's open.
Total range of the three crows projected downward.
Next significant support level.
2x the three-candle range.
Best Conditions
- Timeframe: daily
- Timeframe: 4h
- Timeframe: weekly
- end of uptrend
- bear market beginning
- sector rotation
- Asset: stocks
- Asset: indices
- Asset: crypto
Avoid When
- Timeframe: 1m
- Timeframe: 5m
- strong bull market
- oversold conditions
Confluence Factors
- Pattern begins at resistance
- Volume increases across the three candles
- RSI breaks below 50 during the pattern
- MACD crosses bearish
- Pattern occurs after a failed breakout
Scale In Strategy
Enter 50% after the second crow, add 50% after the third crow completes.
Scale Out Strategy
Take 33% at TP1, 33% at TP2, trail remaining.
Risk Management
Volume Analysis
Volume Confirmation
Volume should be consistently high or increasing across all three candles. This confirms sustained institutional selling.
Volume Profile
The three-candle range should show relatively uniform volume distribution, reflecting organized selling.
Volume Divergence
If volume decreases significantly on each candle, the selling may be exhausting — be cautious of a bounce.
Technical Confluence
Support Resistance
The first crow's high becomes key resistance. The pattern is most powerful when it begins at an existing resistance level.
Fibonacci Levels
If the pattern begins at a Fibonacci retracement level (38.2%, 50%, or 61.8%), the bearish signal is strengthened.
Moving Averages
The three crows breaking below the 20 and 50 EMA confirm a trend change.
Rsi Confirmation
RSI declining from above 50 to below 40 during the pattern confirms momentum shift.
Macd Confirmation
MACD crossing below the signal line during the pattern is strong confirmation.
Bollinger Bands
The three candles walking down from the middle to the lower Bollinger Band show progressive weakness.
Vwap
Each candle closing below its session VWAP confirms selling dominance throughout each session.
Ichimoku Cloud
Three crows breaking below the Tenkan-Sen and approaching the Kumo cloud is bearish.
Elliott Wave
Identical three crows often mark the beginning of an impulsive Wave 3 or Wave C decline.
Wyckoff Phase
The pattern often appears during the sign of weakness (SOW) in the distribution phase.
Market Profile
Each session's profile shows a downward-migrating value area, confirming progressive seller acceptance of lower prices.
Order Flow
Consistently negative delta across all three sessions confirms aggressive selling dominance.
Open Interest
Rising open interest across the three sessions suggests new short positions being initiated.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Higher Timeframe Alignment
Identical three crows on the weekly chart is an extremely powerful signal suggesting a major trend change.
Lower Timeframe Entry
The third crow's session on intraday charts will show a downtrend — use the 1H chart for entry timing.
Timeframe Confluence
Pattern visible on both daily and 4H charts confirms the signal.
Top-Down Approach
Weekly resistance → Daily identical three crows → 4H continuation entry → 1H entry pattern.
Statistics
Historical Examples
Nvidia Identical Three Crows
successNvidia formed identical three crows after reaching all-time highs. Each candle opened precisely at the prior close, and the stock declined over 30% in the following months.
Lesson: Tech stocks at all-time highs with institutional distribution can form textbook identical three crows patterns.
Bitcoin Three Crows 2021
successBitcoin formed near-identical three crows from the $65K area. Each session opened at the prior close and sold off, beginning the major decline to $33K.
Lesson: Crypto markets can produce very clean identical three crows due to 24/7 trading and continuous price discovery.
Variations
Accelerating Identical Crows
Each crow has a slightly larger body than the previous one.
Decelerating Identical Crows
Each crow has a slightly smaller body than the previous one.
Confusion Matrix
Patterns commonly confused with Bearish Identical Three Crows and how to distinguish them.
Bearish Three Black Crows
90% similarCheck where each candle opens: if each opens AT the prior candle's close (no gap, no overlap), it is identical three crows. If opens are within the prior body but not at the close, it is standard three black crows.
Key Differences
- Identical three crows require each open at the prior close
- Standard three black crows can open within the prior candle's body
- Identical version is rarer and considered slightly stronger
Bearish Three Declining Soldiers
70% similarCompare the body sizes: if they are similar, it is identical three crows. If each body is smaller than the last, it is three declining soldiers.
Key Differences
- Declining soldiers show progressively smaller bodies
- Identical three crows have similar body sizes
- Declining soldiers suggest exhaustion; identical three crows suggest persistent selling
A falling window is a Japanese candlestick term for a gap down in price where the high of the current candle is below the low of the previous candle, signaling strong bearish continuation momentum.
The bearish marubozu is a single candle with no shadows — price opened at the high and closed at the low, showing complete seller domination throughout the entire session with no buying resistance.
The bearish staircase down is a trend continuation pattern characterized by a rhythmic series of lower highs and lower lows, creating a step-like descending structure. Each step represents a decline followed by a partial recovery that fails to reclaim the prior high.
Three black crows is a powerful bearish reversal pattern consisting of three consecutive long bearish candles, each opening within the prior candle's body and closing near its low. It signals strong, persistent selling pressure and a likely trend reversal.
Three declining soldiers feature three consecutive bearish candles with progressively smaller bodies, indicating that while selling continues, its momentum is weakening. The pattern signals a reversal but with less conviction than three black crows.
The Bearish Abandoned Baby is one of the rarest and most reliable top reversal patterns in candlestick analysis. It features a doji that is completely isolated by gaps on both sides, signaling an abrupt and dramatic shift from buying to selling pressure.
Pro Tips & Common Mistakes
Pro Tips
- The 'identical' opening is what distinguishes this from standard three black crows — verify that each open is at or very near the prior close.
- Volume should remain strong or increase. If volume fades on the third crow, the selling may be exhausting.
- The pattern is rarer than three black crows due to the strict opening requirement, but it is more reliable when it appears.
- Short shadows on all three candles increase the pattern's reliability — it shows sellers maintained control throughout each session.
Common Mistakes
- Confusing standard three black crows with identical three crows — the opening requirements are different.
- Entering after the third candle in oversold conditions — check RSI before committing.
- Not checking that the body sizes are similar — dissimilar bodies suggest a different pattern.
- Ignoring the prior trend — this pattern needs an uptrend or rally to reverse.
Advanced Techniques
- Analyze the order flow on each candle to confirm that selling is organized (institutional TWAP) rather than panic (random).
- Combine with dark pool data: consistent large-block sells across all three sessions confirms institutional distribution.
- Monitor the overnight sessions: the identical open confirms no overnight buying — check futures markets for confirmation.
- Use market microstructure analysis to identify the specific selling algorithms creating the uniform pattern.
Institutional Perspective
The identical opening characteristic is the hallmark of algorithmic institutional selling. TWAP and VWAP selling algorithms create this uniform decline pattern as they systematically unload positions over multiple sessions.
Fun Facts
- The identical opening requirement makes this pattern about 3-4x rarer than standard three black crows.
- Japanese traders believed three crows sitting on a fence represented three bad omens — the identical version meant the omens were aligned.
- Quantitative studies suggest the identical three crows pattern is more common in markets with 24/7 trading (crypto) where there are no overnight gaps.
Frequently Asked Questions
Identical three crows is a three-candle bearish pattern where each candle opens at or very near the previous candle's close, creating a uniform staircase decline. It signals organized, methodical selling pressure.
The key difference is the opening requirement. Identical three crows require each candle to open AT the prior candle's close. Standard three black crows only require each open to be within the prior candle's body. The identical version is rarer and slightly more reliable.
No, the identical three crows is relatively rare due to the strict requirement that each candle open at the exact close of the previous one. When it does appear, it is a strong signal of organized institutional selling.